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Below are the 20 most recent journal entries recorded in the "Jonathan Kaplan" journal:[<< Previous 20 entries]
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12:11 pm
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you've got fifty million of 'em....
...if you are fortunate.
I'm talking about minutes in your life. If you live to be 100 years old, you will have lived a bit over 50 million minutes.
I've developed technology that can efficiently transfer life time from one person to another. This could be BIG business! I just need a bit of help pricing the service.
So, how much is each minute worth?
Poll #1181421 time is money
Open to: All, results viewable to: AllI would be more likely to buy minutes than sell them, regardless of price. The minimum price at which I will sell some minutes of my life in bulk is: The maximum price at which I will buy minutes to add to my life is:
I think there is going to be a big market for this service (and huge margins), especially if I can get the technology to work internationally.
Tags: life, price, time
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11:14 am
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own private Idaho
In the last century the Western world has invented numerous labor saving devices. Your home is probably filled with them. But aside from saving labor, these machines have other effects. One very notable effect is the way they allow the individual to withdraw into a more private life, less community needed. The refrigerator allows you to store food for days, no need to go to market often at all. The washer/dryer keeps you from kneeling next to others by the side of a stream with a couple of rocks. The car whisks you around in solitude, no need for horses or carriages, more public conveyances, let alone (G-d forbid) walking. Need I mention Internet, the 'device' creating a whole new private world for individuals?
There is little/no community in the Western world, only many individual consumers, each out for himself.
We are consumers, first and foremost. We aren't much of a Republic (and certainly not a Democracy). We are a world dominated by consumerism, everything else conforms to that. Commentators lament the apathy and indifference in the American voter, regardless of the malfeasance of government. There are good reasons for that apathy. We (generally) feel affluent. Why change things and risk our private wealth? Even the (Western) poor don't really want change (yet) because they have the dream of affluence. If politicos address important issues appropriately, it lowers the hopes of their dream.
Too many people have too much invested in the status quo. That (mainly) is why little gets done on the big issues.
This next decade is going to be a tough one for Americans. Our standard of living HAS TO drop relative to the rest of the world. HAS TO, and maybe by a great deal. Drastic changes might come if the masses have too large a degrading of their dream of eventual affluence. You find out who your real friends and community are when times get tough.
We are going to find out that a refrigerator and car (or even, internet) don't take the place of other people right there, really with you.
Tags: community, finance, globalism, society
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11:05 am
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par-tay
Thanks to GWB and gang, the Democratic party has a Jimmy Carter opportunity.
After Nixon quit during his second term, it was all too obvious that a Democrat would be elected president in 1976. The winner of the Democratic nomination was an unknown from the deep South, no one from that region had been president since Zachary Taylor in 1848.
The Democratic party has the same kind of chance this year. So, they've decided to nominate candidates from the two most significant factions that have never been POTUS.
Was this a good election for the Dems to make that decision?
Will the US, for the first time, have a female or black president?
Will this be a good thing for the country, domestically and/or internationally?
As a marginally related aside, I've thought of Shirley Chisholm quite a few times in the last half year.
Think on the remaining candidate crop of 2008.
If I say the word "Honest", who comes to mind?
How about if I say "Venal"?
"Outsider"?
Will the United States ever have a multi-party political system?
Tags: politics, presidency
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11:38 am
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so smrt
I was raised to be intelligent, logical, analytical, thoughtful. It is in my genes, in my blood, in our traditions. Jews prize intelligence very very highly. Being smart was the most important character trait.
I have always thought of intelligence as an unqualified good.
The last few years have made me think otherwise. Most particularly, my driving need to maximize positives and minimize negatives (a methodology I used extensively) has had some real bad fallout(s).
Smart is not all good.
A bunch of you have lived lives most intelligently, I know. Can you tell me of situations that have happened to you where being smart was not all good?
All stories appreciated.
Tags: intelligence
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11:49 am
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on the rocks
Please answer the (very short) poll before reading further, thanks!
Poll #1105533 On the Rocks
Open to: All, results viewable to: AllOn the whole, the amount of sea ice is decreasing in the Arctic Ocean region (over the last 3-4 decades). On the whole, the amount of sea ice is decreasing in the Antarctic region (over the last 3-4 decades). Who "owns" the North Pole region?
Arctic story
Antarctica story
North Pole story
Tags: climate change, north pole
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02:50 pm
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mister Roger's neighborhood
For a long time now the world has been getting smaller. Globally, more people are informed and capable of travelling, more quickly, to anywhere in the globe they desire. Communication that used to take weeks, then days, then hours, now is almost instantaneous.
We all gain something from having such immediacy in our lives, that is certain.
But we lose some things, too.
I read this book a couple of months ago. It has made me think anew about many societal topics. One theme is how much of our lives is less personal than it used to be. But I want to think more about this before writing much.
In the meantime, here is a poll.
(I think I set it up so only friends could see the breakdown, but I'm not sure of that.)
( take a Poll? )
Tags: community, globalism, local living, poll, society
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01:37 pm
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projected value
I have two topics today. That is rare since I usually have zero or one. This is a binary blog.
But not today.
First, embarrassingly, I have forgotten some basic math that I know I should know (but don't).
How do I calculate the Present Value of a future income stream?
I can't find the formula anywhere, and longhand seems way too cumbersome, if there are many payments.
I should know this, or be able to figure it out (or as last resort, find it on google).
Difficulty like this reminds me that my brain works less well than it used to.
Thanks in advance...
Secondly (but perhaps more importantly), Cathy and I recently altered our viewing room and purchased one of these. The room has a large bare wall and some air space in front of it, so we set up the projector to shoot video onto the wall. The screen is at least 12 by 8 feet, and if the wall were larger could be even bigger. The MovieMate projects TV, DVD, consoles and computers into a visual experience that is often breathtaking, even better than being in a theater. The computer image is a tad pixelated (even if Cathy hasn't noticed) and it isn't High Definition (there are higher priced models that are 720p), but for the money and effort, the result is incredibly good. There aren't enough input jacks to cover all bases, so you might have to get a switcher of some type, or just pull/insert plugs as needed, but this is a small price for having a larger than life screen so accessible. Did I mention the box is designed to be very portable, and almost idiot proof? I would say if you don't mind not having High Def, images projected huge by this machine can't be beat.
Tags: math, video
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10:37 am
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I like dreaming.
You are the master of Space and Time. (Notice the Caps.) You are You Almighty (perhaps at Milliways, the Restaurant at the End of the Universe.)
You get to spend the next day with any one, two, or three people from the history (or future) of mankind.
You can go anywhere at all, in any era, and do anything you desire.
Who do you invite?
Where do you go?
What do you and your guests do?
(My reply after I daydream it awhile.)
Tags: daydream, fantasy
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12:31 pm
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deer and antelope play
We’re sitting together at Wrigley Field, about to watch a baseball game.
I ask you, “What is the lowest run total the Cubs could score today?
Of course, you answer “Zero.”, having never seen a box score with negative numbers.
Then I ask you, “What is the highest run total the Cubs could score today, the highest possible score?”
That question is a little harder.
We are talking about a distribution. Simplistically, a distribution is an arrangement of values of a variable showing their observed or theoretical frequency of occurrence. It is very easy to know one endpoint of the distribution of runs scored by Cubs in a single game. The other endpoint of the range is more problematic. Just figuring out a methodology for determining it takes thought. You could find out the highest score ever recorded in a major league baseball game. Does that feel like a limit? If you think yes, what if I said you were forced to wager your entire wealth against a hundred dollars on that number being the upper limit. Still want to use that number, or do you want to move your perception of the limit higher, decreasing risk? Maybe you just want to push it up to infinity, that would insure winning the wager. Now I add that I have a magical way of knowing the actual distribution in this case, and I know what that upper limit is, really. As a bonus for correct guessing, I will give you 10x your current wealth if you get within 3% of the upper endpoint (and the Cubs actually score that number).
So now you should be motivated to find the correct upper limit in the distribution of runs scored by the Cubs today.
How would you go about figuring out that number?
Instead of that Cubbie distribution, what if the distribution in question is the price of the USDollar v. a basket of currencies over the next 5 years?
You should be motivated naturally to know the endpoints of that range, and using those endpoints as information in investing decisions. The endpoints are going to be very rare events, but by definition, not impossible events. Because these endpoint events are so rare, their occurrence often creates financial turmoil. Many people go bankrupt when markets overshoot well beyond expectations.
Some people have their financial position structured such that they are constantly betting the house against a 25 run outing. That bet works great, game after game, year after year.
Until the horrific day that you lose your house.
Tags: finance, markets, probability
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01:35 pm
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black someday
Today is the 20th anniversary of Black Monday, the stock market crash of 1987. That was a big day for me, and someday I'll write about it. But not today, ![[info]](http://p-stat.livejournal.com/img/userinfo.gif) nokomisjeff.
There is something more important first.
An old friend just called me and told me that the Hindenburg Omen has occurred this week. Can anyone who follows the market more closely confirm (or refute) this? I've been pretty invested for quite awhile now, maybe it is time to sell equity. I don't pay enough attention to know what is happening, but if that Omen has occurred, I am (pretty much) outta there.
Tags: finance, markets
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10:21 am
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green containment
My Green credentials are more muddy than bright. Nevertheless, I can kind of understand recycling.
There is one environmental stance I totally don't understand. About thirty years ago, the environmental movement was instrumental in killing US desire to develop nuclear energy. I think they did this country a huge disservice.
Is there any Green out there who can explain the environmental movement's continuing hardline stance against nuclear energy? Here is a great Green argument in favor of nuclear, is the counter argument nearly as strong anymore?
Tags: environment, nuclear, politics
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10:43 am
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time flying
Time is so subjective.
When I was seven years old and would wake up on a Saturday morning, that day of play lasted forever. And then I had another day, Sunday, put those two days together it was like a mini-vacation. But of course Monday morning meant a long long trek until the next Saturday, back then.
When I was eighteen years old, a week was short, but a semester took a long time. There were frat parties and innumerable classes and midterms and latenight cram sessions and by the time final exams arrived it felt like that semester was never-ending.
Now, the years fly by almost faster than I can watch. It has been over two years since my friend Howard died and in one way it feels like maybe it was two months. Next Friday is the 20th anniversary of Black Monday, but it couldn't have been that long since then? 20 years?
Time moves at different rates, depending. I think I now know a few ways to trick the perception of time's passage. See, I'd like to live a lot longer. My genes support this desire, much of my family lives into their nineties. But I want each moment to count, too. That is the essence of one trick. Live in the moment, completely. The more you live in the past, the more you don't notice the now. The more you factor the future in your thoughts, the more you are looking ahead, the faster the present appears to pass.
Another trick is to live in pain. For the last number of years, I have had painful realities. I notice that dealing with pain directly slows up time, sometimes very much so. An hour of pain lasts much longer than an hour of comfort.
A third trick is to do boring things. Do activities that don't excite you, that positively bore you, and the time will usually seem slower.
So, if you live in the moment, experience pain, and do boring things, time really seems to pass quite slowly.
This is one compelling set of reasons why I am looking forward to the nomination and election of Al Gore.
Tags: pain, politics, time
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02:39 pm
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a disturbing element of Steve Fossett's disappearance.
If you have heard of Steve Fossett, it is probably because of his aviation exploits. It is less well known that he financed his later adventures with money made from the option floors in the 80s and 90s. He was a market-maker on the CBOE and financed other market makers around the country. He was pretty well-known in the insular floor trading community.
There was one aspect of his approach that I remember very clearly. All of his traders, at the end of the day, had to make sure they had no option positions that were net short contracts, (or "units", as his people called them). Fossett traders always kept very strict account of how many options they were net long/short, because if they finished the day net short even one odd lot, Steve would notice and take issue.
That is because, if you are net short options in a position, then some part of the price curve has negative leverage risk. If you are net short calls and a takeover happens overnight, or bad earnings/news comes out after the close, the position can lose a great deal of money. Steve knew that and was most compulsive in making sure none of his money was EVER exposed to that kind of risk.
That was his lifelong style.
The risk manager who is so adamant about never taking surprise risk in the financial world is a risk manager who, if he is a pilot, would NEVER go flying in unpopulated areas without GPS. Fossett purportedly had personal GPS devices. A major selling point of those devices is the amelioration of risk. Steve made his name minimizing risk.
I have trouble believing Steve Fossett went flying in the mountains without his GPS on purpose, that is so out of the financial character I have considerable knowledge of....
Current Music: finance, options, risk
Tags: finance, options, risk
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12:53 pm
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sour cream to the top
I don't talk much about politics or elections. I am too cynical, now. I don't think there will be too much difference in future presidential action regardless which Dem/Rep wins. They are too much of the same mold, working within the established system. If Hillary wins, we may have 28 consecutive years in which either a Bush or Clinton ruled, and the differences in regime between B or C won't appear different enough for me to even care, much, between them. They were all (at least) somewhat corrupt.
But one overriding thought hits me nonetheless.
As far as I can tell, the poorest candidate in the US presidential race is Joe Biden, who has (apparently) managed to be a senator for 30 years without accumulating any wealth to speak of. The average American has wealth and an income of less than $100K each, and Joe appears to be the only candidate with either number near average. Every other candidate earns and is worth more than 6 digits a year. More than half are easy millionaires. These candidates are all (probably) driven people, successful on numerous levels, but does it make sense that there are NO presidential candidates of below average wealth, ever? I read that Biden is merely average in wealth, and I felt a bit bad for him. What, he isn't politically savvy enough to be monied, in a target-rich environment like the US Senate?
Who was the last non-rich president? I am thinking maybe Carter, if not him, then Eisenhower or Truman? We are a democratic people, in a representative form of government. Money is (arguably) one of the most important issues in American life? Should the lead executive representative always be rich, much much wealthier than the average man?
Does it matter to Americans how their chief executive makes/made his money? Do we prefer rich people in positions that represent us?
Tags: politics, president, wealth
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11:46 am
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they need a new drug
Should professional athletes be allowed to use performance enhancing drugs?
If you think NO, please explain how we can stop that type of drug use/development effectively, and/or why it is even a bad thing at all.
If you think YES, please explain how you would regulate that usage (if at all) and generally, how you would tell children about this aspect of sport.
Maybe there should be separate, distinct sports, one league for those enhanced, one for those using their natural, stock body?
I wonder most how those who want to keep sports drug-free expect to stop the wave of the future.
Tags: drugs, sport
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01:15 pm
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absolute ambiguity, and another question...
In my last entry, some people defined the phrase "Greatest moment in American sports history" in terms of excellence incomparable, unqualified world success, Mark Spitz or Secretariat. Others saw that term more nationalistically, feeling a moment when Americans won under adversity, perhaps overcoming an historic rival, like the Miracle on Ice. Other others felt that term more subjectivistically, recalling personal moments of great fan satisfaction. And a few remembered moments of lore from the past, even though the actual moment in question has lost so much meaning, (I'm thinking of the Shot heard Round the World, how many here know what that was without reference, are we talking Bobby Thomson or maybe not?).
The extent of individual knowledge intrigues me, most especially, how do we know the size of the space of what we don't know. It interested me not just how many different ways there are to interpret the word "Greatest", but how each person would be more likely see the meaning their way, with much less regard for other perspectives. As example, I didn't even consider the Miracle on Ice, even though that seemed to be the popular choice. I am not much of a hockey fan, but still, I should have thought of it. Nobody picked up on Jesse Owens, although I am certain that his moment was unparalleled at the time.
All of this got me to thinking about other semantic conundrums (and finally, to the interactive element of this entry).
What do you think is
the Substance most Dangerous to Man?
Is it easier or harder (than in the sports question) to see other potential perspectives in advance?
Tags: words
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12:59 pm
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....Secretariat by 31 lengths...
I was watching television yesterday when I heard a color commentator say, "This is the greatest moment in American sports history." He was clearly caught up in the july 4th atmosphere, making the most fatuous comment I have heard in years. Visions of Mark Spitz and Jesse Owens sped through my head, most unlike what was happening onscreen.
What do you think is the greatest moment in American sports history? (If you wish, you may suggest an international moment.)
For bonus credit, to what event was that color commentator referring?
Tags: sport
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12:38 pm
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inexplicable stupidity
Please list below something that a subset of mankind does that is so stupid you can't understand it.
In a world of so many billions of individuals, anything can happen. People do every sort of thing. Plenty of things that people do look stupid to other people, but are still explainable. When someone gets a post through their nose, I think it looks/is stupid, but that is just my taste, their taste is obviously different. When a poker player bets out on the river when you know for sure he is bluffing, it might look stupid, but (probably) not to the bluffer. And even if the bluffer knows it is stupid, it still is explainable, there are dozens of reasons to play poker and those many motivations can explain any poker action.
But sometimes a mass of humanity does something that seems just too stupid.
List an example here (my current entry is in the response)
and maybe someone else here can 'splain the inexplicable.
Tags: humanity
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11:06 am
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....I've had a few, but then again,.....
There are many ways to live a life. One foundational precept I've had since very young was to try to live such that I would have NO regret. I don't want to look back at any episode in my past and wish I had done it differently. This attitude has gotten me into trouble at times, but overall has done me a world of good.
I find at this (optimistically) mid-point that I do have a few regrets nonetheless. Both of them are familial.
My relationship with my father has been estranged most of my life. I think there are numerous times I could have taken more rewarding action, but didn't. Now I wish I had. Fortunately, we are both amenable to eliminating this lifelong discord, so although I regret past actions, I have hope for the future.
And that is the problem with my other largest regret.
My mother's parents were good people. I adored them, but from a child's perspective. They were both so very good to me, without exception. Much of what I am I owe to them. My grandfather particularly made constant effort to be a positive force in my life. I can remember him visiting the teenage me, taking me out golfing every week for years, hanging out with me, providing a very positive male image. And I can remember the 15 year old me being callous and uncaring, almost resentful of having to spend so much time with him.
I don't remember ever thanking him, especially not for putting up with the adolescent creep I used to be. He lived forever (into his 90s), but it wasn't long enough for me to become mature or aware enough to want to consciously thank him, to express how very much he meant to me.
And then he died and now I will never have the chance.
How do you treat regret in your life?
What is your biggest regret?
Is there anything specific you can do about it?
Tags: family, regret, relationship
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03:03 pm
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Immigration Poll
A poll about immigration. I have a hunch this is going to be an (ever more) important topic in the near-future.
The link to the original article, perhaps the best I have read on the topic, is in my first comment.
All of the questions I just kind of cut and pasted from Lowenstein's writing.
This poll is applicable mainly to US citizens.
I made the answers blind so the poll could be anonymous in the taking.
(EDIT: Actually, I can't tell yet if the answers are blind or not, I thought I set it correctly, but maybe not.)
Comment at will.
( Take the Poll )
Tags: immigration, politics
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